The 2024 NHL offseason may still be months away, but as the season approaches the quarter way point, the to-do list of housekeeping teams have to do breaks on the horizon. For the Philadelphia Flyers, one of the biggest decisions they’re going to have to make comes in the form of re-signing their soon-to-be 25-year-old forward Owen Tippett.
Tippett is currently in his second full season as a Flyer. He had a breakout year in 2022-23, scoring 27 goals and 49 points in 77 games. His current deal pays him $1.5 million and he’s still a restricted free agent this coming offseason. He has just two goals and six points through 13 games to start the 2023-24 season as he has not been immune to the Flyers’ goalscoring struggles on the whole.
Keep
He’s a goalscorer… ?
Despite the slow start to this season, Tippett finished second on the team in goals with 27 last season. For an organization whose main struggle over the last few seasons has been offensive production, giving up the one guy who showed a flash of serious potential doesn’t make sense.
His age
Tippett will turn 25 years old in February, right in the age range of most of the players on this team. It could also be an indication that the best is yet to come for the former first round pick.
The last ties to Giroux
While this may not be a tangible factor, internally, the organization may feel committed to squeezing whatever they can out of Tippett as the main piece they received when they traded Claude Giroux to Florida at the 2022 trade deadline. Moving that piece, especially if the return isn’t a clear net positive, could be seen as doing more harm than good to the image of the team.
Trade
Depth on the wings
The Flyers still have way too many bodies clogging up the wings, especially on the right side. Not just at the NHL level, but throughout their entire pipeline. So when it comes to committing long term to one of them, they better be sure that it’s the right guy, and it is not yet set in stone that Tippett is an unquestioned building block of the future.
$7 million is… a lot
The early rumors suggest Tippett could be in the $7 million aav range for his next deal. At face value, that isn’t necessarily an egregious number for a top six winger who pots 30 goals a season, but it is a larger gamble if that level of production ends up being equivalent to a one-hit wonder. Tippett hasn’t played poorly to start the year, but there hasn’t been much of an indication that he’s capable repeating that feat again.
Last season was an outlier
Tippett spent the first three seasons of his career with the Florida Panthers where he scored just 14 goals in 94 games. A stat that is highly concerning given his two goal output through 13 games this season. It makes you wonder if last season was an outlier? Trying to move a guy who may not be a consistent producer, but had one good season recently could be an enticing piece for clubs that feel like a rehab project is possible. Maybe he rebounds. Maybe he doesn’t, but the Flyers aren’t the team to take the financial gamble to find out.
Conclusion
There’s a good chance the Flyers re-sign Owen Tippett this summer, but the value and term of his deal are going to be volatile and they need to be careful to not overcommit to an average player. They organization has a recent track record of handing out ugly deals to players that probably shouldn’t be here, and even though the cap is expected to finally rise during the 2024 offseason, that shouldn’t give the Flyers the green light to set the checkbook on fire immediately.
If his production by season’s end does end up being underwhelming, it should put a big ding in the jackpot he could’ve landed. A 4-year, $4 million aav deal sounds much better as a base for Tippett. He gets a payday to reflect his top six TOI, and it keeps him in town for a few more years to truly see if he’s got more to give, and if he plateaus and struggles to produce, they’re not handcuffed to yet another atrocity of a contract for a decade.
And 4x$4 is just a starting point. If Tippett does rebound as the 2023-24 season progresses, then bumping up the aav can be talked about.
Who know what Briere, Jones and Tortorella have planned for the 2024 offseason. It’s a trio that is quite unpredictable for the future. If they commit to a big organizational shift, maybe Tippett becomes a casualty in favor of adding a legitimate star player. But if things remain status quo and there’s no major shift, re-signing Tippett, hopefully to a team-friendly deal is more than likely in the cards.
By: Dan Esche (@DanTheFlyeraFan)
photo credit: tsn.ca
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