As the 2024 trade deadline approaches, the rumors surrounding the “rebuilding” Philadelphia Flyers are starting to gain some momentum. Their top unrestricted free agent right-handed defenseman Sean Walker was expected to be their biggest trade chip on deadline day, but rumors have also emerged suggesting fellow RHD Rasmus Ristolainen may be on the move instead. The Flyers are likely to retain one of them, but which one makes more sense to keep?
Who Has More Trade Value?
This is actually an interesting question. There are always going to be general managers that will pay through the nose to acquire big, physical defensemen, especially if they’re right shots. Ristolainen has three years left at a $5.1 million cap hit, a more than reasonable number for a second pair defenseman these days, and on the whole has become a better all around player under John Tortorella.
Could the Flyers recoup the first and second round picks Chuck Fletcher gave up for him back in 2021? That may be a tall task, but trying to squeeze a first round pick out of a desperate team like the Maple Leafs (or potentially settling for a second and a prospect) could be very doable either at the deadline or offseason.
But even with the salary cap going up ever so slightly for the first time in years, it’s not going to be enough for teams to start spending frivolously again. And we’ve seen how difficult moving money has been during the last few offseasons. Ristolainen’s remaining three years, even at a reasonable cap hit, could prove difficult to deal away for a for-profit trade.
That’s where Sean Walker would be the easier move. He’s an unrestricted free agent at season’s end so teams aren’t committed to him long-term if they don’t want to be.
The bigger question is what exactly Walker’s value will be. Could the Flyers get a first round pick for him at the trade deadline? It may be a long shot, but it’s entirely within the realm of possibility. The deadline is where logic and proper value for trades goes out the window. It is totally believable, albeit unlikely, that they could deal Walker for a first rounder from a needy team like Toronto or Edmonton, where, in both cases, the cheaper expiring contract is a huge selling point. There’s a good chance they settle for a second round pick and either a mid-tier prospect or a mid-round pick though.
Their value could end up being a wash, but it’s undoubtedly true that Walker will be the easier of the two to move because they just can’t guarantee a team is willing to take on Ristolainen’s contract given the league-wide financial turmoil.
Who Is Better for the Flyers’ Roster?
One the whole, Walker and Ristolainen are fairly similar players. Walker has been given the edge in just about every category this season, especially offensively, but Ristolainen was utilized more last season than Walker is this year, so it’s not like there’s an outstanding difference between them.
Now that the Flyers have Jamie Drysdale in tow, the bulk of the offensive responsibilities, and minutes in general, on the right side will go to him, which further evens the playing field. Either one can handle second pair minutes and there’s not an overwhelming pull in either direction.
Who has the Better Contract?
If the Flyers opt to keep Sean Walker, the question then becomes what will his extension look like? His current contract was four years and $10.6 million ($2.65 mil aav). He’ll turn 30 years old in 2024.
The defense is once again under the microscope under the Flyers’ refreshed rebuilding approach and will probably, hopefully, undergo quite a bit of change over the next few seasons. In that sense, they shouldn’t be committing a ton of money or term to Walker.
If they can go two years at a $3 million cap hit, that’d probably be ideal. Even 3×3 wouldn’t be egregious. He’s not really in a spot to demand a long term contract and shouldn’t be given anything above a $4 million aav. And if they can manage to keep that contract on the shorter side of both term and dollar value, while dealing away Ristolainen, it could be a cheeky way for the Flyers to bank a couple million dollars.
It’s worth repeating that Ristolainen’s contract isn’t bad, but in a league where cap is king, penny pinching wherever the opportunity arrises needs to be capitalized upon.
Who Stays and Who Goes?
At the end of the day, Sean Walker and Rasmus Ristolainen are similar players. With only slight differences in statistics and (probably) one or two million dollars separating them.
If they’re keeping things simple, trading Sean Walker makes the most sense if for no other reason than his expiring contract can be easier to move and probably provides more value in the trade market.
It’s not the most ideal outcome, but they could even keep both and punt the decision down the road until next season’s trade deadline. They’re not cap strapped to a point where they couldn’t re-sign Walker on a reasonable deal while keeping Ristolainen but considering both player’s value is still high, deferring on an opportunity to move at least one of them shouldn’t be passed up. Rejecting the idea of trading players when their value is trending up is an all too common occurrence from the Flyers over the last few years.
They could always trade Walker at the deadline, then re-sign him in the summer and deal Ristolainen at the draft or some point during the summer. Get returns for both players, and still shave a couple dollars off the books. If they can get a commitment from Walker that he’d return and have a couple teams on speed dial for Ristolainen in the offseason, it could very well be the best of both worlds. It’s the kind of big brain move the maximizes their assets and they get to keep Walker, who appears to be the favorite of the two from the coaching staff.
It’s the kind of 4D chess Danny Briere needs to be playing if he wants to walk the line of both collecting assets for a rebuild while remaining relatively competitive on the ice.
How the Flyers handle the defense at the 2024 trade deadline and offseason will provide a peek behind the curtain of just what the front office is thinking moving forward. The overcrowding with depth veterans keeping their talented youth at bay is a problem they can work their way out of, but it’s also a problem they could easily continue to ignore. Trading Walker should be a no-brainer at the deadline. Some team is going to give them an offer they *shouldn’t* refuse, and it’ll test Briere’s asset management ability for the first time as general manager.
By: Dan Esche (@DanTheFlyeraFan)
photo credit: Getty Images
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