The Philadelphia Flyers are rebuilding… or at least they claim they are. For most teams, a rebuild would revolve around trading main roster players for future assets in the form of picks and prospects, and while Danny Briere and the Flyers did a little bit of that during his first year at the helm of the organization, there’s one major challenge left, and that’s the fate of 27-year-old forward Travis Konecny.
He’s entering the last year of his current contract that pays him $5.5 million a season and is eligible for an extension during the new league year this summer. He posted 33 goals and 68 points during the 2023-24 campaign, both personal bests and the second consecutive year he hit the 30-goal, 60-point plateau. As Konecny’s on-ice stock continues to rise and the Flyers’ rebuild no longer feeling like a proper rebuild, the question becomes whether or not they trade or sign their star forward sometime over the next year?
The Flyers have a history of calling for a rebuild, then keeping valuable trade assets on the roster far past their expiration date and getting pennies on the dollar when they eventually trade their now-washed up stars. It happened with Wayne Simmonds, Jake Voracek and Claude Giroux, the big three from the Hextall regime.
The main argument for keeping Konecny on the roster (other than unabashed cult-like support from an overly-clingy fanbase) is the fact that he is in the prime of his career and can still be built around. Now that Konecny has seemingly taken his game to a new level, even if his production is still a bit streaky and still rather pedestrian in the grand scheme of scoring across the league, it can be a valid argument for retaining his services, even as the team slogs through a rebuild.
A large portion of the fanbase loves Travis Konency and would love to keep him, but from an organizational standpoint, Keeping Konecny has little to do with Konecny himself, it boils down to a single question directed at the front office- do they actually build around him while he is at the peak of his career? If this is their star forward that they want to keep in Philly for nearly another decade, are they actually going to treat him as such, or does the team remain the same low-ceiling group they’ve been for the first eight years of his tenure with the club.
If pandering, which the front office has shown they’re not above, is why the organization ultimately refuses to trade him, then the responsibility falls on the shoulders of Danny Briere to actually construct a competitive team around Konecny. 27 (28 when his new deal kicks in) is a weird age in the modern-day NHL. It’s young enough where the player can still be a pillar, but old enough where the sands of time are already starting to pass and the countdown from the climax to the falling action of his career is underway. If they see him as a legitimate piece of the future, they have to start making moves to capitalize and maximize on the best days of Konecny’s career.
The largest problem with Konecny is he’s not quite the level of player you want to build a franchise around. He’s just not quite among the elite of the elite in today’s NHL. He can be a very good complimentary piece, which isn’t a bad or negative thing, but if the Flyers never add those actual high-end pieces to the team they won’t get the most out of Konecny, which is where the never-ending circle of the Giroux argument comes into play. If they keep Konecny and continue to make zero forward progress over the next three to five years, they’ve just wasted his entire career when they could’ve shipped him out of town for some future assets that actually help the “rebuild” and future of the organization.
If Konecny signs an eight-year extension, it’ll carry him until he’s 36 years old. A recent trend of questionable decisions the Flyers have been making in their interest of preserving a mediocre present with nasty consequences in a few year’s time. Sean Couturier will be 38 in 2030. Travis Sanheim will be 35 in 2031. Even Owen Tippett’s extension will carry him past his 33rd birthday in 2032.
The most interesting part of the ongoing Konecny negotiations is what exactly his new cap hit would be. It’ll probably be a decent raise from his current $5.5 million cap hit, but he’s not exactly putting a case out there that he should be one of the highest paid players in the league. If Briere can keep the AAV in the $7 million range, a nice increase but nothing crazy, it may be a manageable number for the most of the duration of his deal. If they go overboard and these insane rumors of a deal closer to $10 million a year gets realized, it’s primed to blow back in their faces sooner rather than later.
Even though his numbers aren’t that of a typical top player, he’s the best thing the Flyers have at the moment and because of the pedestal the organization puts him on, it’s unlikely he sees an AAV lower than $8 million. It’ll likely fall somewhere between $8 mil – $10 mil a season. The higher end of that scale will be “justified” with the salary cap rising again, which may ring true in a handful of years, but doesn’t do much good in the immediate future.
And after checking CapFriendly’s active player lists for the comparable 65-70 point totals in 2023-24, There are 22 players in the league (excluding Konecny) that fit in that mark and their average salary is $7,015,909, with the numbers ranging from $4.9 million (Drake Batherson) to $10 million (Jack Eichel). 17 players in the league are making $10 million or more in 2024-25, and 40 total players are making more than $9 million, and every last one of them is far beyond what Travis Konecny is.
We’ve predicted various potential extensions for Konecny in the past, and the only way an eight-figure AAV should come to fruition is if it’s a lesser term. Say in the three to four year range. But it’s highly unlikely the Flyers are savvy enough to do something like that. They only know how to hand out max-term eight year contracts to their perceived top players. And if/when Konecny does get the max term, giving him the highest dollar value shouldn’t be considered… even though it probably will be.
It seems pretty much etched in stone that the Flyers re-sign Konecny. There’s no way they’ve even considered the possibility of flipping him for assets, and unless negotiations stall completely, he’ll be in orange and black for the next eight years. The biggest question is simple- is this the right time to build around this player? Between his age, the money he’s going to get and the current state of the “rebuild” the answer is no. Are they just re-signing him to keep the masses happy but don’t actually intend on doing what it takes to win a Cup in the next, say, five years?
Travis Konecny represents one of the last pit stops for the Flyers organization on their “rebuilding” path. The last veteran they can sell for a net positive to garner assets, or the last big internal contract handed out in questionable fashion for the foreseeable future. If… or more likely when… Konecny receives his extension, everyone just as to hope the cap hit isn’t super egregious and if they’re lucky it’s not a max term deal either. But that feels like wishful thinking. He’s probably going to make a lot of money for a very long time, right or not. Everybody’s favorite player is about to stay on the books long enough to become the villain.
By: Dan Esche (@DanTheFlyeraFan)
photo credit: nhl.com
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