On every road that is travelled, one must inevitably come to that veritable fork in the road. A choice between paths which may lead to the desired destination or could end up taking one along a backtracking path and further away from the end goal. Both paths are indistinguishable from each other and appear to offer both substantial promise but also an inherent element of risk. There is no GPS, no Google Maps, no service stations, no rest stops, and no physical road atlas available. Just an idling engine stuck at the crossroads with the radio ironically playing “Should I Stay or Should I Go” by The Clash.
Such is the dilemma facing Philadelphia Flyers General Manager Danny Briere and what he should do with Travis Konecny. The 27-year-old Right Winger is coming off a season where he scored 33 goals and 68 points (both career highs) and will be eligible to sign a contract extension on July 1st, a year away from becoming an unrestricted free agent in 2025.
Should Briere re-sign the All-Star to an extension or explore options for a trade? Does Konecny fit into the long-term plans of the franchise or does he become an expensive second line option when Matvei Michkov inevitably surpasses him on the depth chart? Is the ‘rebuild’ the Flyers are on better served by keeping Konecny as a piece to build around, or is trading your most talented roster player the way to eventually get more of the high-end talent that this team needs?
These are only a few of the questions that come to mind with the complex dilemma surrounding the Flyers and Travis Konecny. Danny Briere is at that metaphorical fork in the road and the decision that gets made will undoubtedly alter the trajectory of the franchise. It isn’t a decision that should get taken lightly and I don’t envy the position that Briere finds himself in.
But Flyers fans have got to know: Should TK stay or should he go?
Enter the ‘Mad Russian’
The case to re-sign Travis Konecny is a rather simple one: He is the best and most talented offensive player on a team that is starved for offensive talent.
His 0.89 points per game this season and 6 shorthanded goals easily led the Flyers in addition to his team lead in both goals and points. Even more impressive was that he produced offensively even though the Flyers lacked high-level Centers and that he was rumored to be struggling with injury in the final stages of the season. Replacing such production would be a nearly impossible task, with only the arrival of Matvei Michkov from the KHL about two seasons earlier than predicted being the only way it could be realistically replaced. Konecny was the Flyers lone representative at the All-Star Game this season. Under John Tortorella, Konecny has emerged as a leader both on the ice and in the locker-room as evidenced by being named an Alternate Captain when Sean Couturier was given the captaincy earlier this season.
He is a good player. No question about it. Let’s put any other thoughts to bed right now.
Where the questions arise though is where Konecny fits in the medium to longer term plans of the organization with the news breaking on Sunday June 23rd that Matvei Michkov will be joining the Flyers after having his contract terminated by SKA St. Petersburg of the KHL. Michkov plays RW which happens to be the same position that Konecny plays. Michkov is the type of talent that the Flyers and their fans have been yearning for ever since he fell into their laps with the 7th overall pick in the 2023 NHL Draft. He instantly slots into the NHL lineup as a regular and will inject talent and excitement into a roster that clearly could use his energy, skill, and dynamism.
Can Michkov become an immediate impact player as a 19-year old rookie with stiffer competition and a smaller ice surface in the NHL? He can. Whether it actually happens or not and to what degree remains to be seen. Does he automatically take the first line RW slot from Konecny or do the Flyers ease him in as a second line winger to start and ease his transition to North American professional hockey? This decision is even tougher because Michkov has not played on North American ice to provide at least some information for the Flyers brass.
Even if Michkov starts out on the second line, how long will it be before Michkov inevitably leapfrogs Konecny for the coveted top line role as expected? It begs the question of whether of not the team should still include Konecny in their plans or trade him for assets that can truly accelerate the rebuild. While Michkov does help the roster, by himself the rebuild is not necessarily accelerated. There is still a gaping hole at Center (particularly on the top line), and that hole absolutely needs to be addressed in order to insulate offensive production regardless of whether Konecny remains on the roster or not. Acquiring or drafting that Center is a critical component to getting the Flyers towards their stated goal of becoming an eventual Stanley Cup contender. Does signing or trading Konecny further the organization towards that ultimate goal?
Let’s face it; organizationally the Flyers generally extend players when their contracts are set to expire, especially when players have one-year remaining and can sign their extension on July 1st. We have seen it with both Sean Couturier and with Travis Sanheim, so it isn’t a leap that Konecny would fit into that category based on his performance and production outlined above. So what could a Travis Konecny extension look like?
Kevin Kurz of The Athletic recently posted that a good comparable for a Konecny extension could be the Timo Meier contract extension with the New Jersey Devils. Meier signed an 8-year deal worth $70.4 million ($8.8 million AAV) with a full No Movement Clause (NMC) for five seasons and a Modified No Trade Clause (with a 15-team no trade list) for the remainder of the deal.
With all of the similarities that Kurz described, the comparison does seem apt for the Konecny situation albeit with a major difference being the increase of the salary cap after years of remining flat. Does an 8-year deal with NMC protections make sense at around $9 million per season with Matvei Michkov now in the mix? Some have speculated that perhaps a shorter term on the deal (say 5 or 6 years) would be the ideal length for a Konecny extension. However, Anthony SanFilippo has spoken about this on the Snow the Goalie podcast that a shorter-term deal would actually increase the cap hit rather than keep it at the same level (or even lower). If there is any hesitation about signing Konecny for a $9 million AAV, it would be very difficult to try to argue that any deal with a higher AAV would be more palatable.
Again, Michkov needs to be taken into consideration. With the anticipated signing of his entry level contract seemingly imminent, the Flyers need to consider what the landscape and their cap situation would look like in three years when Michkov becomes an RFA. If Michkov becomes the player that he is projected to be, re-signing him has the potential to be a tricky situation with Konecny on the books. What happens if Michkov performs well enough to the point that he would demand a contract comparable or even exceeding what Konecny signed? If the Flyers try to get Michkov signed to a shorter-term bridge deal, they could potentially be vulnerable to an offer sheet by another aggressive NHL club. Although the chances of an offer sheet are slim, a player of Michkov’s talent would be tempting and could potentially put the Flyers in a vulnerable position depending on the contract numbers that would be bandied about especially if Konecny is extended. Also remember that Cam York and Tyson Foerster will also be looking to extend with the Flyers as well after this upcoming season.
There is also precedent for star wingers to sign massive deals after their ELC’s expire. Mitch Marner signed a 6-year deal with a $10.893 million AAV. Mikko Rantanen signed a 6-year deal worth $55.5 million with a $9.25 million AAV. Brady Tkachuk signed a 7-year $57.5 million dollar deal for an $8.2 million AAV. Michkov could certainly be in that category depending of course on his production and adaptation to North America. The Flyers would obviously need to plan for such a scenario down the line and it could potentially be impacted by the re-signing of Travis Konecny.
Trading TK
So what does a Konecny trade look like? Proponents of trading Konecny would be on board with this course of action because it tidies up the future cap situation going forward and would also allow for the gathering of more assets to further the stated rebuild that the Flyers are currently on. Those that detest the idea of trading Konecny claim that it is counterproductive to trade the best offensive talent on the roster in order to try to get more talent for the future. At the trade deadline, those that want to keep Konecny decried the acquiring of a late First-Round pick as the centerpiece that would be offered by a playoff team looking to take advantage of Konecny’s low $5.5 million AAV for the remainder of 2024 and for the 2024-2025 season.
There is some merit to that line of thinking. But now that the trade deadline is firmly in the rearview mirror and the 2024 NHL Draft is quickly approaching, could the Draft be a more ideal place to trade Konecny in terms of value? The acquiring team will still get Konecny for a bargain salary of $5.5 million for the upcoming season and can decide from there what a possible extension could look like based on his fit with the team. Would the returns on a trade be diminished if the trade was executed now compared to during the trade deadline? Perhaps, but I am not convinced it would be that much lower. So what could a possible Konecny trade look like?
Let’s circle back to the aforementioned Timo Meier. Timo Meier was traded from the San Jose Sharks to the New Jersey Devils on February 26th just days before the trade deadine on March 3rd, 2023. While the Devils received minor players Timur Ibragimov, Scott Harrington, Santeri Hatakka, Zachary Emond, and a 2024 5th Round pick in addition to Meier; the San Jose sharks received Andreas Johnsson, Fabian Zetterlund, Nikita Okhotiuk, Shakir Mukhamadullin, a 2023 conditional 1st Round pick, a 2024 conditional 2nd Round pick, and a 7th Round pick in 2024. Along with the Sharks retaining salary in the deal, this one had a lot of pieces exchanged. The important pieces and their production for this season are the 2023 1st Round pick (which became LW Quentin Musty) who scored 102 points with the Sudbury Wolves of the OHL; Fabian Zetterlund who scored 24 goals and 20 assists for 44 points in 82 games with the San Jose Sharks; and former 1st Round Defenseman Shakir Mukhamadullin who spend the bulk of the season with the Sharks’ AHL affiliate the San Jose Barracuda with 7 goals and 34 points in 55 games.
Is the Meier return of a 1st Round pick and two prospects enough of a return for a player like Travis Konecny? It would stand to reason that a 1st Round pick and a prospect would be the baseline for any potential deal, and the quality of the prospect and any other draft picks could potentially be in play especially if the Flyers either retain some salary or add some pieces to go the other way. The Flyers current cap situation likely means that retaining any more salary would not be something the Flyers are looking to do, especially considering the value that Konecny currently has on his team friendly final year. It may not be the type of return that many fans would want to see, but it would certainly fit in with the theme of the rebuild that the Flyers are pursuing. A successful deal would have to be evaluated once the draft picks/prospects involved actually become known and begin to make an impact at the NHL level.
Additionally, the use of a comparable with Timo Meier goes beyond the terms of a potential contract extension. When Mike Grier was hired as the new GM of the San Jose Sharks on July 5th 2022, the word rebuild was not part of the overall strategy for the club (at least not publicly). As the 2022-2023 season unfolded, it became quite clear that San Jose needed to shift focus and embark on the path of a rebuild. They traded Meier days before the trade deadline, traded Erik Karlsson on August 6th 2023, and traded Tomas Hertl in March of 2024.
Clearly the club decided that significant pieces that could be traded off the roster would be and that acquiring draft capital would be the primary focus. It began with Meier but the rebuild really kicked into gear with the trade of Karlsson who came off a 25 goal and 101-point campaign as a defenseman. Grier could have decided to build around Meier and Karlsson and insulate them with other pieces in an effort to be competitive, but clearly the organization decided to take the path of a full on rebuild. The club was not good this past season and while attendance suffered, fans can take solace in the fact that the Sharks will be taking top ranked prospect Macklin Celebrini with their 1st overall selection at the 2024 NHL Draft, and add another good player at 14th overall. Those pieces will be added to Will Smith in their prospect pipeline and a young player like William Eklund to be significant parts of their future.
It should be asked: should the Flyers take such a path? I suppose it depends on how far along in the rebuild one believes the Flyers are. Many fans enjoyed the competitiveness and hard-nosed style of the Flyers this past season, but many still acknowledged that the team still had a ways to go in order to take another step or two forward. Trading a fan favorite is never easy, but neither is the rebuilding process. It takes patience, discipline, and time which can all be in short supply with a fanbase that burns for another chance at the Stanley Cup. A Konecny trade absolutely causes short-term pain but has the potential to really pay dividends down the line.
Conclusion
I don’t envy the decision that the Flyers have to make here and I purposely did not want to insert my own opinion. There are costs and benefits with both re-signing or trading Travis Konecny. Everyone can come to their own conclusions over what they feel the best course of action is.
History shows that the smart money is probably that the Flyers will try to re-sign him, but it shouldn’t be a foregone conclusion or an afterthought. Both paths need to be given proper attention. Consider everything. Neglect nothing. The stakes are high and the time for a decision will very soon be here. Whichever decision gets made will have a ripple effect that will continue to impact this franchise for many years to come.
Choose wisely.
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Until next time from BrotherlyPuck.com,
I remain,
Manny Benevides
brotherlypuck.com 