Edmonton Oilers star forward Connor McDavid highlights the NHL free agent class of 2026. And as long as he remains without a new contract with his current team, fan theories about where he’ll end up playing the 2026-27 season are running wild, and fans of the Philadelphia Flyers have gotten in on the fun.
But what are the chances that the Flyers stand a snowball’s chance of signing the then-29-year-old forward anyway?
TLDR answer: It’s not happening.
First and foremost, chances are he never even hits free agency. The most likely probability is that he just signs a record extension with the Oilers at some point over the next year. And if he’s in pursuit of a Cup, there’s no real reason to consider anybody else. A Stanley Cup Final appearance in 2024 and (at least) a Western Conference Finals appearance in 2025, puts him closer to a championship than he’ll get with most teams across the league. And it’s not like the Oilers are going to let him walk away without throwing their hat in the ring anyway.
He’s set to become the highest paid NHL player, a title currently held by Auston Matthews at $13.2 million that will probably be surpassed my Mitch Marner this summer. McDavid most likely will fall short of $20 million a season, but he’ll probably end up north of a $15 million aav. His teammate Leon Draisaitl has a new $14 million aav contract kicking in next season.
Also, just in general, star players don’t move like they used to. In most recent offseasons you’re lucky if two or three half-decent players make it all the way to free agency, and the crème de le crème almost never gamble in the market. It’s what makes Mitch Marner such a talked about player in 2025, it’s a rarity that an over-point-per-game player tests the waters.
Why would McDavid choose the Flyers anyway? If a Cup does not manifest in Edmonton in 2025 or 2026, why would he throw in the towel and come to a team that hasn’t even made the postseason in five years and counting? What do the Flyers have going on that would convince him to pass on 31 other teams and sign in Philly? In case you haven’t noticed, the Flyers haven’t really been doing much for the last decade-plus.
The only real answer is money, but even that lies closer to the pipe dream side of things.
With the rising cap, the Flyers will have some free salary at their disposal, but not as much as it may seem. According to PuckPedia’s cap projections, the Flyers will have just shy of $57 million in cap space in the 2026 offseason, HOWEVER, that is not factoring in extensions to Cam York, Tyson Foerster, Noah Cates, Jamie Drysdale, and they also have zero main roster goalies under contract in 2026-27. So you can kiss at least half of that space goodbye, if not more, and that’s just assuming they don’t make a single roster move between now and 2026… which, it’s the Flyers, that stagnancy is a real potential outcome.
Obviously the Flyers are in desperate need of a top center and there’s no better option than Connor McDavid. And McDavid playing alongside Matvei Michkov is a wet dream if ever there was. But there’s something very Hextallian about the McDavid mirage. Pointing towards a piece of the future thats’ virtually unattainable provides just a slight glimmer of hope that the decade-long suffering is coming to an end, and more importantly, it justifies the Flyers when they don’t spend any money in 2025, even if it means a similar, lackluster on-ice result in 2025-26. The illustrious golden carrot that pushes the timeline back without directly saying it.
“Why fix things today when we can just patiently wait for something that probably won’t happen in 2026?” That may be a palpable mindset to possess in May, but definitely won’t be appreciated in December when the Flyers are at the bottom of the division because they ran back Ryan Peohling as their 1C and McDavid just inks a new deal in Edmonton anyway.
So is Connor McDavid coming to Philadelphia? The answer is no. In fact, it’s such a fantasy that it shouldn’t even be a talking point. But hey, it’s great to dream. Danny Briere needs to focus on tangible change right now. If by some chance he ends up at least dipping his toe in the free agent pool, we’ll revisit a potential McDavid-to-Philly situation. But in the meantime, the Flyers’ front office and their fans need to consider quite literally every other more reasonable option to improve the roster in 2025.
By: Dan Esche (@DanTheFlyeraFan)
photo credit: nhl.com
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