As the All-Star break has passed and the trade deadline is looming, I’m already looking forward to the offseason. Why? Because I believe that the Flyers have already accomplished their season goal of figuring out what they have. All that’s left to do this season is to sell off cogs like Braun and JVR at the deadline, and to continue playing .500 hockey. It’s the Flyer way.
Decisions will be made on many players in the coming months who have either impressed or disappointed bench boss John Tortorella. Noah Cates and Scott Laughton seem to have caught the eye of Torts, while Kevin Hayes has often been on the receiving end of criticism, despite his offensive success. Another player that will need to be addressed moving forward is Morgan Frost. Though his season has been “up and down like a toilet seat,” I believe that Fletcher or whatever GM presiding over Broad Street will sign Frost to an extension this summer.
Selected 27th overall in the 2017 draft, Frost was expected to make an offensive impact sooner rather than later. He hasn’t quite done that yet, for many reasons. Crucial development years for Frost have been impacted by a shoulder separation requiring surgery, COVID-19, and the team’s recent string of lackluster seasons. In the blink of an eye, Frost is now 23 years old and is playing on a one year deal for $800k. With Tortorella at the helm and an increased role thanks to the team’s lack of centers, Frost has found confidence. That newfound confidence has allowed Frost to show off his talents in the form of risky cross-ice passes, toe drags and dangles, and even a between the legs goal.
With 27 games to go and Frost only having missed one game, his point totals are at a career high. Scoring at a .48 point-per-game pace, Morgan has tallied 10 goals and 16 assists in 54 games. His numbers certainly are not eye-popping, but for a guy who had scored at a .29 point-per-game pace prior to this season, there has undoubtedly been growth. Growth is exactly what the front office was hoping for in this “stabilizing” season, so I believe Frost will be rewarded with a new contract. To make a prediction on what an extension may look like, I found a handful of comparable centers from the 2022 free agent class.
Frost and Comparable 2022 Signings
- Morgan Frost (PHI – age 23): 1 year x $.800 million, 49 points in 131 games (.37 pts / game)
Frost is on pace for 38 points in his career year.
- Christian Fischer (ARI – age 25): 1 year x $1.125 million, 102 points in 371 games (.27 pts / game)
Fischer has the most NHL experience of the bunch, but hasn’t hit the 20-point mark since 2017-18.
- Nicolas Roy (VGK – age 26): 5 years x $3 million, 87 points in 214 games (.40 pts / game)
Roy is a solid bottom sixer providing depth scoring. As a 2015 4th round pick, he has panned out well.
- Isac Lundestrom (ANA – age 23): 2 years x $1.8 million, 55 points in 184 games (.30 pts / game)
A 2018 first round pick at 23rd overall, Lundestrom avoided arbitration with his Tippett-like deal.
- Morgan Geekie (SEA – age 24): 1 year x $1.4 million, 51 points in 154 games (.33 pts / game)
Geekie and the Kraken avoided their arbitration case last summer as well, and he’s on pace to tie his career high of 22 points.
Prediction Time
The negotiation between the Flyers and Frost in the offseason will certainly be interesting as the team pinches pennies to stay cap compliant. As Frost is an upcoming Restricted Free Agent, the Flyers have quite a bit of leverage as they could send him a qualifying offer of $840,000. However, as we have seen with Geekie and Lundestrom last offseason, salary arbitration can be a helpful tool to push management in a player-friendly direction. Hell, even Zack MacEwen was planning to have an arbitration case before his deal was done.
At the end of the day, I think that Frost’s new deal will not be as long as Roy’s, but he could argue for more money than Geekie received last summer. Given his increased production and role with the team, I see a multi-year bridge deal in Frost’s future. However, with a laundry list of long contracts already on the books, Frost’s deal would likely be a two or three year commitment in the Owen Tippett ballpark. The exact numbers will definitely be affected by what his peers sign for in free agency, so if the Flyers want to resign Frost, they would be wise to do so before the market squeezes them.
My best guess is that Frost gets a two-year deal with an annual salary of $1.85 million. If Chuck Fletcher stays in town, who knows, maybe he would even throw in a No Trade Clause!
By: Jacob Hollamby @Jaqueezy28
Photo Credit: NHL.com
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